Monday, November 05, 2007

Final bet between Sam Talarico and myself on tomorrow's Election

I hope my predicitons are wrong; I hope more people vote Libertarian!

My predictions are in red, Sam's are in purple:

Mayor
Kelty 42/Henry 58
Kelty 43/Henry 57

1st District City Council
Smith 56/Boyd 35/ Peters 9
Smith 53/ Boyd 41/Peters 6

2nd District City Council
Goldner 49/Schmidt 48/ Bartels 3
Schmidt 55/Goldner 42/Bartels 3

3rd District City Council
Didier 57/McBride 41/Diaz 2
Didier 61/McBride 37/Diaz 2

4th District City Council
Harper 58/Stewart 42
Harper 55/Stewart 45

5th District City Council
Pape 52/Buskirk 36/Fuller 12
Pape 62/Buskirk 33/Fuller 5

6th District City Council
Hines 66/Smith 28/Enders 6
Hines 70/Smith 25/Enders 5

At Large
Benders and Schoaff 17/Crawford 15/Brown 14/Ross 13%/Essex 12%/Larsen 5%/Horner 5/Brightbill 2
Crawford 18/Brown 17/Bender 16/Schoaff 15/Essex and Porter Ross 13/Horner and Larsen 3/Brightbill 2

Mike Sylvester






7 comments:

J Q Taxpayer said...

Mike, you and I agree on the council races for the most part. I think Schoaff will lead and more then likely Crawford. After that a crap shoot. When you get down to 1% swing in voting it is anyone's race.

Even if the race ends up as you called it. Horner, Larsen, and Brightbill did have a hand in the election.

On the Mayor's race. You may be right and I am barking up the wrong tree (which will not be a first). But I see it a great deal closer and maybe a Kelty win.

I see the 2nd District race as close, but Schmidet winning.

gadfly said...

I guess that the election is over for another year. Sylvester and Talerico have declared he winners and there is nothing left to ask except ..."Why did the Libertarians bother to run a full slate of council candidates?"

It appears that politics as usual will continue in Fort Wayne and the "old boy" influence network will prevail yet again.

I am voting for Kelty, Smith and Larson (as a single "at large" vote). I will not support a single Harrison Square proponent.

Robert Enders said...

Most people's predictions turn out to be way off. They are either posting their own wishful thinking, trying to make the other side's cause look hopeless, or both. I am seriously considering banning predictions on this blog. People will still cite polling data, past election returns, factors that will play a roll in turnout, etc. I just don't want people pulling two or three numbers that add up to 100 out of their butt and calling that a prediction.

Bob G said...

Robert,

Isn't that the point of a blog to post your opinions ?

Robert Enders said...

Yes, and I just posted my opinion of predictions.

I'll take a poll on it Wednesday. Both Mike and Sam will be way off and they both know it.

Phil Marx said...

WHO I WANT TO WIN

Henry

Shoaff
Horner
Larsen

Peters
Goldner
Didier
Harper
Buskirk
Enders


WHO I THINK WILL WIN

Henry (55%)

Shoaff - 1st
Crawford - 2nd
Brown - 3rd
Bender - 4th
Horner - 5th
Porter-Ross - 6th
Essex - 7th
Larsen - 8th
Brightbill - 9th


Smith(46%),Boyd(40%),Peters(14%)
Goldner(49%),Schmidt(46%),Bartels(5%)
Didier(55%),McBride(43%),Diaz(2%)
Harper (53%),Stewart(47%)
Pape(50%),Buskirk(45%),Fuller(5%)
Hines(56%),Smith(37%),Enders(7%)


I’ll say 53% turnout

Anonymous said...

Why would Mike and Sam post results that they know will be way off? That doesn't make any sense.