Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Post 2006 Election Predictions

Several people have asked me what I think will happen in the next few months. I am going to give you my opinion on how I think things will go in the next couple of years.

Please send me your comments on each section and I will add them into the main post. I would like at least one Dem and one Rep to tell me what they think about each item. I will give each person a different color and we can revisit this in six months and see who was right.

In fact we could make it into a bet... Anyone who wants to bet a nice dinner on who is right please let me know. I will CRUSH you!

First of all, I think a lot will get done. The Republicans are scared, Bush has surrendered, and The Republicans have already started the finger pointing. Not everything that is accomplished will be good...

I think the Republicans will become conservatives again. This would be a good thing overall... I hope Mike Pence becomes the Minority Leader in The House for obvious reasons...

The Democrats are going to have their own battles as well... If they are smart they will realize that they need to accomplish a lot if they want to win again in 2008. If they are smart they will also realize that they have to move to the right and get some of the "kooks" out of leadership positions... John Kerry and Ted Kennedy come to mind... I expect The Democrats to race towards the center starting today.

1. Pat White and most conservative talk radio hosts seem to think the Democrats will kill talk radio. This is just right wing paranoia. It will not happen. If it does happen I will have to call in to Pat White and tell him I was wrong; he and I have argued this on the air several times... I would be VERY ANGRY if the Dems try to do this. I am against re-instituting The Fairness Doctrine; it would be a violation of Free Speech.

2. Pat White and most conservative talk radio hosts seem to think that the Dems will try to impeach Bush. If the Dems try to do this they will regret it... I do not buy this either, the Democrats are not going to do this. I am against impeaching Bush.

3. Amnesty to illegal aliens. This would be terrible for America and wrong. If the Dems make this mistake they will be made to regret it in 2008. There is little doubt in my mind that Bush and The Democrats will grant Amnesty and it will make me angry. I am against Amnesty.

4. Pat White and many people think the Dems will immediately draw down troop levels in Iraq. They are wrong and this will be fun to watch. The left wing bloggers and peace wing of the Democratic party is about to get into a big fight with the mainstream Democrats and it will be an ugly fight. It will be an ugly fight because we are not going to do ANYTHING new in Iraq. Even with a new Defense Secretary our policy in Iraq will not significantly change. The media will cover the war differently; but, nothing will change. Not at all. This is really going to make a lot of Democrats like our own Robert Rouse VERY ANGRY at the Dems. We have 133,000 troops in Iraq right now; expect that to continue. We will still have at least 120,000 troops in Iraq in one year.

5. Pat White and many others think the Dems will go after John Bolton in The United Nations. I am not as sure about this one. My guess is that there will be a half hearted effort to get rid of John Bolton. If Bush caves in John Bolton may go... I think he will stay. I think John Bolton should stay, he has done a good job. Overall The United Nations is a huge waste of taxpayer money...

6. I have heard a lot about The Dems repealing all of Bush's tax cuts. I do NOT think the Dems will repeal them all; however, they will allow some of them to retire via their sunset provisions. My guess is that those geared towards the middle class and the poor will remain and that those geared towards the wealthy will be allowed to expire. Unfortunately I think the Dems will make the tax code even more complicated. I think they will allow the tax cuts for the wealthy expire. I think the tax code should be scrapped and simplified.

7. I have heard a lot about the Dems allowing the estate taxes to come back. This is definitely not true. The Dems are not going to mess with the estate taxes too much. They MAY even raise the threshold to around 5 million dollars for an estate. I think that the Dems will basically leave The Estate tax alone. I think estate taxes are evil and should be eliminated entirely.

8. The Dems will increase the minimum wage on the Federal level. This is a given and Bush will not Veto it. Bush babbled about making sure it would not effect small business in his Press Conference; so I am afraid this may become another overly complicated bill The Dems will increase the minimum wage. I am against this because I understand economics and The Constitution. The Federal minimum wage should be abolished and each State should set their own.

9. The Dems will make no real progress on the Federal Debt no matter what they promise. The Federal Debt was about 8.5 trillion dollars in 2006 at the end of the fiscal year (End of September). Over the last six years the Federal Debt has increased ABOUT 400 billion dollars each year. I expect this to continue. My guess is the Federal Debt will be 8.9 trillion dollars at the end of Sep 2007. I expect it to be 9.3 trillion dollars at the end of Sep 2008. I will be watching this very carefully along with Jeff Pruitt. Nancy Pelosi has made promises that I think she will break. The Dems will talk about fiscal responsibility and will not follow through with them. I am in favor of balancing the Federal Budget TODAY, not in five years.

10. The Dems will create even more unfunded Federal liabilities then we have today. I have posted a lot of information on our unfunded Federal liabilities. They are about 75 trillion dollars today. This is criminal. I expect them to continue to increase. The Dems will not touch this issue at all. I am in favor of eliminating all of our unfunded liabilities.

11. The Dems will talk about protecting Social Security a lot. As of May of 2006 the unfunded liability of Social Security was 13.4 trillion dollars. (<http://www.bc.edu/centers/crr/issues/ib_46.pdf>) In other words, if we had 13.4 trillion dollars invested in US Treasury's in May then Social Security would be solvent; unfortunately, you need to read #9 above. We have NOT saved ANY money for Social Security. What this means is future generations are going to have to pay for the current generation and past generations, which is wrong. The Dems will talk about protecting social security and they will do NOTHING. Social Security needs to be fixed now. It should never have been allowed to have ANY unfunded liability. Note that it had an unfunded liability the day it was created.

12. The Dems will talk about healthcare a whole lot. One of the largest Democratic talking points was the fact that 50 million American are uninsured as far as healthcare. I have NO IDEA what The Dems will do. They DO NOT have a plan to fix healthcare. I think they will push for more government involvement and they will throw more money at the problem. This will not work and where will the money come from. I have to think the Dems will try to get health insurance for more people and I have to think they will want the government to pay for it. Obviously I want to kick the government out of health care entirely.

The following items Nancy Pelosi promised to do within the 1st 100 hours and The Dems MUST accomplish to maintain ANY credibility.

13. "Put new rules in place to break the link between lobbyists and legislators." I love this idea; however, The Dems will NOT do this. They will completely blow this promise. I am in favor of this Democratic promise.

14. "Enact all recommendations of the 9/11 Commission." I am not sure about this one but I tend to favor it. I fully expect The Dems to keep this promise. I think I am in favor of this promise.

15. "Cut interest rates on student loans in half." I am against this for obvious reasons. The Federal government needs to get out of Education entirely. The more money you throw at something the more expensive it gets. It is simple economics. If the Federal government cuts the interest rates in half on student loans that means they will pay the difference out of tax payer dollars. This will get expensive and make it harder to balance the budget. I think the Dems will keep this promise. This promise is a bad idea, we need less government involvement in education not more.

16. "Allow government to negotiate directly with drug companies for lower drug prices for Medicare patients." I think this is a great idea. I think it is going to be much harder then The Dems think. The drug companies are very powerful and control a lot of Republicans AND Democrats. This issue will be very important to The Dems and they need to keep this promise. I think the Dems will make a feeble effort to do this; however, they will NOT significantly lower drug prices. This promise is a GREAT idea.

17. "Broaden the types of stem cell research allowed with Federal Funds." I have no problem with stem cell research; however, The Federal government is spending too much of my money as it is. The last thing we need is more government money being spent on a new program. I think the Dems will keep this promise. I have no problem with stem cell research, it should be funded privately or with money from the fifty states; it is not something The Federal government should be involved in.

18. The Dems promised to "pay as you go." I do not understand why we EVER got away from "pay as you go." It makes sense and is most likely my largest problem with both Dems and Reps. They have mortgaged America. The Dems will NOT abide by "pay as you go." Obviously "pay as you go" should be the way it is.

19. "Eliminating corporate subsidies for oil companies." I am in favor of eliminating all Federal subsidies. The Dems will find this more complicated then they think; however, I think they will get this done. Federal subsidies should be eliminated...

20. "We will energize America by achieving energy independence." I am in favor of this. It cannot happen in 100 hours and she should NEVER have said this. We are too reliant on foreign oil and we will be just as dependent in two years as we are today. The Dems will fail on this 100%. We need to work on energy dependence; however, neither Party has a plan that will work.

The 2006 election was yesterday; Nancy Pelosi has already made some promises that we will look at.

21. "Nancy Pelosi promised to run the most ethical and honest administration in history." This is a promise I hope that she keeps; however, I do not think it is possible. This one will have to be graded over the next two years. I expect The Dems to keep using all of the legislative "tricks" both Parties have used for the last 50 years to continue. This promise will be broken, possibly by #20 below. This promise SHOULD be kept; but, they will not.

22. "Nancy Pelosi made the promise in 19 above." Each and every Republican involved in a corruption scandal was defeated in the 2006 Election. Amazingly enough Democratic Congressman William J. Jefferson has not yet been defeated. In Louisiana you have to get at least 50% of the vote or participate in a run off election. Jefferson is still alive and will face off with a Democrat next month in the run off election. Jefferson is accused of accepting $400,000 in bribes by the FBI. The FBI took $90,000 from his freezer and has bribes on videotape. There is really no doubt that Jefferson is guilty. This will be one of The Democrats first tests. Nancy Pelosi promised to clean up Washington and Jefferson is where she needs to start. If she is serious about cleaning up Washington she should travel to Louisiana and back Jefferson's opponent. The National Democratic Party should pitch in a lot of money and destroy Jefferson in his election next month. I expect Jefferson to be defeated in December; however, I do not expect The National Democrats to ensure his defeat. Jefferson is scum and should have resigned...

Please comment on this post.

We will revisit this after the first 100 hours and as the next two years progress!

Mike Sylvester

8 comments:

The Conservative UAW Guy said...

Great list.
I can't say as I would go against you on any of them.

I'm not too hip to using embryos for science though. If they are beings (and they may indeed be) then their rights are being violated big time.

Of course, some liberals say that even an infant isn't a person yet, and subject to death for any number of reasons, so my argument doesn't hold much water with them.

Causal said...

Impeachment.

Sometimes reprimanding a child doesn't make the family a happy place. But you still have to do it so the child learns about accountability.
Holding government officials accountable for their actions strengthens our democracy. Letting lawlessness stand weakens it.

Robert Enders said...

1. Mega didos on this one, Mike.
2. The House might impeach, but the Senate will not convict. As it stands now, there cannot be any serious attempt to remove Bush. He would have to upset some GOP senators in order to be removed from office.
3. There is 11 million illegal immigrants in the country already. There are too many to deport or imprison. If something is not done, then we have a permanent underclass within the US. What I propose is that the INS does not GIVE aliens amnesty but makes them EARN it instead. Set up requirements like making them learn English and pay back taxes. Let them show that they are committed to following the law from now on.
4. After Saddam hangs, Bush will say "Misson Accomplished" again and they will all come home. I do not know whether or not Iraq will remain stable afterwards.
5. I agree with you here as well.
6. The GOP can propose the Fair Tax as an issue when they try to take back Congress in 2008.
7. They should bring back the death tax because it will deter most Americans from dying. Just kidding. Seriously, they probably will try to revive the death tax. Because it does not affect many Americans, they do not expect much vocal opposition to it. But that does not make it the right thing to do.
8. I do not like the idea of raising the Federal minimum wage either. It is not fair that Indiana would have the same minimum wage as coastal states that have higher costs of living.

You are probably right about Predictions 9 through 13, and 15 through 22. I will have to go back and read the 9/11 Commission Report before I can decide what I think of it.

Bobett said...

Mike again some strong points:

In the long run...
America be prepared to kick butt.

Without a strong USA where is Europe and our world Allies. It's time to take charge.

Democrats we are counting on you!
Make us proud!!!

CONGRADULATIONS...ROLL WITH IT!

No More excuses of the religion of peace or the infiltration of
our borders.

It's your turn to prevent USA terror. Prevent another hit on our USA soil.

By that please keep the unemployment at under 5%, Investments at above 12,000,
gas at/under $2.50, and the economy rolling. This is the middle class. In the meantime,
Please keep us safe and share the well-being.


Here's your Demoratic Job before the 2008 election.

And with the greatest respect, remember, The American People.

Believe in Liberty!

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Robert Rouse said...

Mike, a couple of points. I AM NOT in favor of impeaching George W. Bush for two reasons, #1, for the next two years, the Dems need to make an effort to show that bipartisan work can happen - unlike the previous six years - and trying to impeach Bush will only impede progress. #2 - if they do impeach Bush, Cheney will pardon him anyway. I favor waiting until we see if a Democratic candidate is elected president, if this happens, then go after Bush and company with the full force of the law and make them pay for their crimes.

As for the war in Iraq, I will only be angry if there aren't some significant changes. As I have said in the past, I am not for an all out withdrawal from Iraq, I believe we need to pull back some and act more as a SWAT team than a police force. It is our continued presence in the area that is fueling many of the problems in Iraq. Let's turn over the rebuilding of Iraq to the Iraqi people. We can continue to keep clandestine personnel in the area, maintain a no-fly zone, patrol the border crossings, and respond to serious situations. But pulling the majority of our people out of harms way and taking those targets off their backs would be a great start. An increased presence would only feed the fires of hatred that are already burning. We can prove to the middle east that we are not trying to keep a perpetual occupation of Iraq. All 16 of our intelligence departments have reported that our involvement in Iraq has made the world a more dangerous place. Let's do all we can to prove to Iraq and their neighbors that we really want to turn control of the day-to-day activities in Iraq to the Iraqi people.

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