Sunday, October 14, 2007

Predictions

Frequently you'll see predictions on upcoming elections made in the news and on blogs like this one. Sometimes these predictions are intended to be self-fulfilling, to discourage those who oppose the supposed frontrunner. Whether or not you should take these predictions seriously depends on several things.
  • Do they site any data as the basis for their prediction, like polling data or demographic statistics?
  • How big of a stake do they have in the race? Are they backing one of the candidates?
  • Do they have a track record of accurate predictions? Is the person making the prediction the same anonymous troll who predicted victory for Charles Langley in November?

6 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Having been involved in a number of survey/polls over the years they are little more then a snapshot and show the tendency of what may be going on with the voter.

First you have to do with a margin of error. The swing can run from 7 to 9 percent. So any vote closer then 54-46 is too close to call. It could range up to 55-45. These are based on two canidate fields.

When you get into multiple selection process the numbers get even stranger and more difficult to hit.

The things polls can not weed out is the weather factor and late breaking news events. These can effect the mind set of voter, if they even vote.

Keep in mind the methods employed in polling are solid. But the people being polled have the right to change their mind until they cast their vote.

Anonymous said...

I have employed numerous methods of statistical sampling and I have run these methods thousands of times using permutation crealysis methodology. Looking at the at-large race, Horner will get between 455 and 482 votes. The other at-large candidates, I believe their name is Bob, will get between 423 and 470 collectively. Larson has huge name i.d from his 18 congressional races. I see Larson in a landslide over Horner. He will get between 493 and 556 votes.

Thank you. I too am sick of people predicting stuff on here when they have no idea what they are talking about.

Anonymous said...

If the election were a human body, the libertarians would be a pimple on the ass.

Robert Enders said...

Anonynous 1:03pm is a good example.
1. We don't know who s/he is, so we can't know his/her track record for accuracy.
2. No polling data is cited.
3. S/he does not know the names of our at large candidates, which leads us to doubt that any actual research was done.
4. "Crealysis" is not a real word.

Anonymous 1:06pm
Actually, the buttocks is the best place to have a pimple. It is the one place that a blemish is least likely to be seen, apart from the genitals. Of course, a pimple on the genitals is kind of hard to explain to one's life partner.

ROACH said...

speaking of zits? as John Belushi in animal House said : try to guess what I am right now!

but heres my updated pics for local FTW.
Mayor: Tom Henry- He's an Army Veteran, a saloonkeeper, Jerry Henry is a wealthy venture capitalist, and entrepreneur- and likely advises his brother(s).
I like Matt Kelty, but not for Mayor- Cake and Kool-aid in the 9th floor will be nothing but a sticky mess we will be cleaniing up for years
At-Large-
1. Doug Horner- is a Marine Veteran- He's got my vote anytime.
Bill Larsen_ a Navy Nuke vet, and quantitavely oriented, but a little single-minded- not that thats a bad thing, but hes not in the top 3 pics- mainly for partisan balance.

2. John Shoaff- is a quiet, non-controversial councilman, who supports the arts community, and is an architect, as well.
3. Denise Porter-Ross- It cant help but be good to support a middle aged black woman. She's got city government experience, at enighborhood presidents meetings/ quadrant rperesentative, working class, and already has experience dealing with the kinds of issues a city council would be dealing with.

1st- Byron Peters- I never met a saloonkeeper, or saloon i didnt like. Of course, some are better than others. too bad the 412 isnt the 420!

2nd- Karen Goldner- give the woman a chance- shes got lots of economic development experience; she's jewish- never hurts to endrse jewish women. Shes nice, and has fresh ideas. Its time toput Mr. Schmidt out to stud/pasture.

3rd- Gloria Diaz- Woman, Latina, Journalist, working class- hey- 14k for council pay is $7 an hour for a whole year- now maybe she will have more time to write for FW reader, and her blog. Libertarian

4th- Wagner- Mitch harper is a weasel, from my personal experience, intuition, and opinion.

5th district- whos the libertarian? I 'm not fond of the incumbent, but I dont like cops either- besides, whats the point- he'll have to abstain froma ll public safety, police, pension, and related votes- potential conflict of interest. besides, one buskirk in govt(county council) is plenty.

6th- Glynn Hines will be councilman here for life, dont waste your time.

so theres my intuitive choices- It represents diversity, partisan change, and balance, seema fair and in my opinion would be a good team .
what do you allthink?