- Do they site any data as the basis for their prediction, like polling data or demographic statistics?
- How big of a stake do they have in the race? Are they backing one of the candidates?
- Do they have a track record of accurate predictions? Is the person making the prediction the same anonymous troll who predicted victory for Charles Langley in November?
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Frequently you'll see predictions on upcoming elections made in the news and on blogs like this one. Sometimes these predictions are intended to be self-fulfilling, to discourage those who oppose the supposed frontrunner. Whether or not you should take these predictions seriously depends on several things.