Friday, October 19, 2007

Another bet with Sam Talarico

Sam and I have another friendly bet. To date, I am 0 for 2 betting against Sam...

We are predicting the outcome of the upcoming elections and here is goes.

Mayor
Sam Talarico
Henry 69%, Kelty 31%
Mike Sylvester
Henry 60%, Kelty 40%

1st District
Sam Talarico
Smith 56%, Boyd 34%, Peters 10%
Mike Sylvester
Smith 60%, Boyd 32%, Peters 8%

2nd District
Sam Talarico
Schmidt 54%, Goldner 44%, Bartels 2%
Mike Sylvester
Goldner 49%, Schmidt 48%, Bartels 3%

3rd District
Sam Talarico
Didier 60%, McBride 40%
Mike Sylvester
Didier 57%, McBride 41%, Diaz 2%

4th District
Sam Talarico
Harper 58%, Stewart 42%
Mike Sylvester
Harper 60%, Stewart 40%

5th District
Sam Talarico
Pape 59%, Buskirk 38%, Robert Fuller 3%
Mike Sylvester
Pape 52%, Buskirk 36%, Robert Fuller 12%

6th District
Sam Talarico
Hines 69%, Smith 28%, Enders 3%

Mike Sylvester
Hine 66%, Smith, 30%, Enders 4%

At Large
Sam Talarico
Crawford 18%, Bender 18%, Brown 16%, Schoaff 14%, Essex 14%, Porter-Ross 12%, Larsen 4%, Horner 2%, Brightbill 2%
Mike Sylvester
Bender 17%, Schoaff 17%, Crawford 15%, Brown 14%, Porter Ross 13%, Essex 12%, Larsen 6%, Horner 4%, Brightbill 2%

Sam and I are actually predicting different people to win a couple of races:

In the 2nd District I think Karen Goldner will win. I have received three if not four direct mail pieces from Karen Goldner, she rang my doorbell and handed out a flyer, and she has been to about every event possible. I think it will be a close race; however, I think she can pull it out.

In the at-large race I think Schoaff will win and Sam thinks Liz Brown will win.

In the 5th District I think Robert Fuller will do significantly better then Sam thinks... He has done a lot of walking. In fact, Robert Fuller and Karen Goldner have done the most "walking" in the City and I think that will garner them quite a few votes.

Another large difference is that I think Kelty will do better then Sam does...

I hope that my predictions are wrong. I want to see the Libertarians and the other challengers do better; however, politics is about name recognition and money raised. It is a sad fact; however, it is a fact.

Mike Sylvester

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Doesn't look too bad Mike.

What where the other two bets?

Anonymous said...

Picking these winners is worse then picking winners at a race track. Not they are wrong but are based a gut feeling. So if it is for fun, then have fun with it.

While Mike makes a good point of who attended many meetings, with regards to Karen Goldner, means little because such a small percentage of people voting attend them.

However, is worth noting of her home visits and mailers. They reach out to the voters. Her message is the same that many before her and those who will follow have made. It does afford her a chance to get her name out there.

By Mike's & Sam's own predictions the Libertarians will play a role in the races. If there "pulled for the sky" numbers are even close the margin of winning an AT LARGE could be impacted.

The Libertarians will never stand a chance to be a real third party in Allen County unitl the media provide them a seat at the table. Unless some person with a great deal of money buys them a seat at the table. Which is what it is going to take.

Looking at their numbers the race for 2nd district and the three at large seats are too close to call. Then again they pulled from the sky!

But they are fun to look at!

Anonymous said...

Depends on who shows up to vote. Right now I would say that 3/4 of the electorate don't want to vote.

Anonymous said...

Interesting Issue being discussed on other blogs:

What sort of impact has Angry White Boy had on the Kelty race?

Possibly quite significant. It is clear that AWB's attacks on Cathy Hawks made it impossible for Hawks to support Kelty. Hawks clearly is part of Souder's inner circle. If Hawks is on-board, much less likely that Souder pulls support.

It is quite possible that AWB has played a big part in Kelty being down for the count. The Fat lady is clearly tuning her voice and a democrat had no business winning the mayors office in 2007

Anonymous said...

Mike,

based on the debate last night, I am changing my mayoral prediction.

Henry 67%
Kelty 33%

Sam