I am going to breakdown the first primary that I have analyzed, the Republican Primary for Mayor.
Let me start by saying that I am rather biased about this race; I am a supporter of Matt Kelty, I am donating money to the Kelty campaign and I am a Precinct Captain for the Kelty Campaign.
3 I know that this surprises some of you.
There is no doubt that Matt Kelty and I do not agree on every issue. In my entire life I have NEVER met any person that I agree with 100%. I agree with Matt on 80% of the political issues that we have discussed and that is as close as I get to most candidates. On the local level I can only think of one person running for office that I am in more agreement with on issues then Matt...
I have discussed politics with many of Matt's supporters. I have to say that most of his supporters agree with me on more issues then they agree with the Big Government Republicans...
I disagree with Matt about SOB's and I disagree with Matt on some social issues. Matt is a social conservative and I am not. I agree 100% with Matt on the proper role of Government...
I spent today with a group of volunteers and we ended up walking two precincts for Matt today. I had a great time and I have to admit that my feet hurt because I am not used to walking as far as I walked today.
The other volunteers that I met today are some really great people. Most of them are Republicans; however, there was also an Independent (And one Libertarian of course). Most of them are small Government Republicans...
I predict that Matt Kelty will win the Republican Primary for Mayor.
I think it will be close since Nelson Peters has the support of the Republican establishment and most prominent local Republicans. I think it will be close because the establishment has thrown piles of money at Nelson Peters. I think Matt Kelty has the support of the "grass roots" of the local Republican Party and I think Matt Kelty has worked very, very hard.
My prediction is:
Matt Kelty 50%
Nelson Peters 47%
Ivan Hood 2%
Wilbert Brown and Teresa Licari 1% combined
What is your prediction for this primary?
I am looking forward to reading them.
Mike Sylvester
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17 comments:
Mike shoots.. he scores!
You're a little low on Kelty's percentage though.
I am also biased. Both Matt and Nelson have helped me in my campaigns, but Matt was always there in support even when the stars were aligned against me. As with you I don't agree 100% with Matt all the time, but I know Matt to be an honest man with a strong commitment to God, family and community. That being said I offered my support (little as it is) to Matt even when I thought he had little chance of winning. That has changed. Matt has run one of the most organized, focused campaigns I have ever seen. He has surrounded himself with competent people and provided them with a clear vision.
Nelson has money, but has appeared indecisive lately.
I like both men, but I think Matt will win the primary in a very very close race.
The battle against Tom Henry is another story. Matt will only win if he can garner support from the Peters camp and raise the big bucks that the Republican establishment has to date denied him.
My opinion.......
If Matt Kelty wins the primary (but I don't think he will), Tom Henry will then beat Kelty in November.
I agree with Terri.
There will be a large swing of "Henry Republicans."
I am willing to bet that Matt Kelty will continue to violate election law. Peters by 10. People are starting to take note of Matt's violations
When people actually realize Kelty has no experience in Government, and when the real amount for the Zogby poll is released, He will lose by atleast 3 percentage points!
Maybe he can somehow start complying to all of the election laws in the next couple days he will have a chance to keep it close to Henry.
I hate it when people whine.
I've never dedicated as much time to a campaign as I have for Matt Kelty, so I am also biased. While I am encouraged by recent event/polls, I think Matt still has an uphill batlle. I'm quite confident that he won't be outworked, though. He needs to keep getting his message through notwithstanding the much greater resources of his opponent.
If Matt should prevail in the primary, there will be no large defection of republican voters in the general election. Both Peters and Kelty have conducted positive campaigns and have done nothing to anger the supporters of the other. This isn't Buskirk/Squadrito, and Linda lost by only a narrow margin in that first contest.
Mark Garvin
When I begin moderating this blog, ANY post that claims someone is violating the law WILL be deleted unless you can cite the alleged activity and the laws that it violates. The Zogby polls did not violate any laws.
What about sending out voter registration forms with the party affiliate already written on them?
I usually don't comment on these sites but feel the need. I see a lot of pettiness in these comments and they all appear to be from Nelson Peters supporters. The candidates agreed to not go negative. Supporters of those candidates should do the same.
That wasn't "illegal" per se. It was a new law they were not aware of. Read the press release.
Look at the signs around town. The Kelty supporters are CLEARLY ruining Peters campaign signs. It is obvious to everyone, whether they support Peters or not. That is as negative as you can get. I haven't seen ANY of Keltys signs shredded with a box cutter, torn, stolen, or purposely covered up by any other candidates signs. Very disheartening to see that happen, to say the least.
I'm not a Kelty supporter, but I have seen no evidence of anyone destroying Nelson's signs.
Wow. Campaign signs being destroyed, vandalized and stolen! That has to be a first. I bet none of Kelty's signs have been damaged!!!
What whiners. “Boo Hoo..Whaaaaa our signs are being damaged. “
Actually the only evidence I have heard of sign stealing was a post on AWB posted on the 15th of April discussing Kathy Hawks replacing Kelty signs with Peter's sings.
Do we really have to whine about signs and cry like a baby because someone sent out Republican absentee ballots, given the fact that Kelty's mistake did not hurt Peter's as both are Republicans, it is a moot point.
Politics is a contact sport. Grow up Whiners.
Oh...and if your too gutless to sign your name when you post, please keep your worthless, spineless opinion to yourself.
I don't see how you can say that it is clearly Kelty supporters ruining Peters signs. Just because he is the opponent doesnt mean his campaign is the only suspect for such deeds. Nelson Peters made a lot of enemies outside the political circle when he championed the smoking ban.
Your comment is nothing more than an attempt at mudslinging the Kelty campaign.
Too bad the smokers don't realize that Mr. Peters amended the law to exclude bars. As the newspapers said, the guy really does try to find a middle ground for issues like the smoking ban.
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