Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Republicans running for the "at-large" seats

I have been quite interested in the Republican race for City Council at large.

I am voting in the Republican Primary this year since Libertarians do not have a primary and since I feel that I will be voting for a slight majority of Republicans in the general election.

The race includes one incumbent and five challengers. These six individuals are competing for three positions on the ballot.

This is going to be a very close race and it is a very difficult race to predict. It is difficult to predict because each of the candidates has their own base of support. I think that this race will be close and that only about 1500 votes will separate the top candidate from the bottom candidate in this race!

I would like to start by saying that each of the six candidates in this race brings a unique perspective and has a unique set of qualifications. I think that voters in The Republican Primary have a good set of choices; however, I am disappointed that the field features so many moderate Republicans and outright "big government" Republicans.

I will start with who I am currently planning on voting for and why.

I am definitely voting for Kurt Gutman. I think that Kurt's financial background is sorely needed by our City Council.

I am pretty sure that I will be voting for Adam Mildred. I like the fact that Adam is a Deputy Prosecutor. I would be solidly in Adam's corner; except, he tends to do an awful lot of "hedging" and I do not care for "hedging."

I am not sure if I will vote for a third candidate or not. If I do it will either be Rob Morris or Marty Bender. Rob Morris opposed Harrison Square and is a small business owner. Marty Bender opposes the smoking ban and is a Fort Wayne police officer. There are things I like about both candidates.

I have nothing against John Crawford or Liz Brown and I think that both are qualified; however:

I cannot vote for John Crawford due to his championing of the smoking ban and his support of the Harrison Square Project. These are two critical votes that Councilman Crawford cast with the big government types. People keep telling me that Councilman Crawford is a small government type; however, it is not apparent to me based on his voting record! In fact, he is voting as a big government Republican!

I cannot vote for Liz Brown since she supports both the smoking ban and Harrison Square. I have a feeling she is another big government Republican and I do not want to see any more big government Republicans elected. (I know Sam Talarico enjoys these comments about big government Republicans)

Once again, this is a very hard race to analyze. After looking at the Campaign finance reports and after talking to a large number of voters I think that this race will be very close and I feel that any of the three candidates could win. Based on what I have seen so far here is my prediction in order of votes from top to bottom:

1. I think Councilman Crawford will receive the most votes; however, he will not be number one by much. His Direct Mail piece "pokes smokers and bar owners in the eye again." He voted in favor of Harrison Square and I feel that the majority of the Republican base opposes the project. Crawford had over three times as much money as the other candidates and he has large signs all over the City. I think this will carry the day.

2. I think Adam Mildred will get the second most votes. Adam has been running a campaign for a long time and I think that he has run the strongest campaign. I think this will result in Adam getting the second highest vote total.

3. I think that the 3rd seat will be determined by as few as 100 votes. I think that Kurt Gutman will win a "squeeker." I think Kurt has raised the third highest amount of money and I think he has done a good job with his signs.

4. I think that Liz Brown will have the fourth highest vote total.

5. I think that Rob Morris will have the fifth highest vote total.

6. I think that Marty Bender will have the sixth highest vote total.

Believe it or not, I have listed the candidates in the exact order of their Fundraising in this race. I hate it; however, money talks in elections...

Please post your prediction in order from highest to lowest...

Mike Sylvester

4 comments:

Robert Enders said...

Issues talks more than money this year. The media loves to talk about who raises the most money. Why? Because that money is spent on advertising, and that is how the media makes its money. It is entirely possible to raise more money and still lose. Barry Goldwater raised more money than LBJ in 1964.

1. Mildred
2. Crawford
3. Some other guy

Anonymous said...

Mike,

I thought you weren't going to go to the council meeting last night. I saw you there and was actually a little surprised. This is not meant to be a negative comment...just curious.

Adam W

LP Mike Sylvester said...

Adam:

I changed my mind...

17 people called me on Monday and asked me to attend the meeting.

I did not plan on speaking and at the end of the meeting I heard some comments made that irritated me so I decided to speak.

I was disappointed that no one had pointed out that in other cities big business owners who support these projects support them with their money. In the case of Harrison Square that is not the case, those who support the project support it with words and not with their wallets...

I take no disrespect from your question partner.

You should have came over and introduced yourself...

Mike Sylvester

Anonymous said...

Mike,

Somebody needs to go head to head with you on the predictions. I will bet you lunch on who is closest. This may be the hardest local race in years to predict.

Crawford 20%
Brown 17%
Morris 17%
Mildred 16%
Bender 15%
Gutman 15%

All very good candidates and most would have won the primary in past years.

Sam T.