Friday, April 06, 2007

Matt Kelty and Harrison Square

I find it very interesting that so many people are spending so much effort attacking a Zogby poll about Harrison Square.

I have informally polled about 50 of our clients as they picked up their tax returns this year. About 20% have been unsure and about 80% have been against the project. I can only think of one who was even somewhat in favor of the project that I talked to.

I have informally polled another 50 people in other settings. Those results were different. Maybe 20% in favor, maybe 20% unsure, maybe 60% opposed.

I polled citizens at a Northwest Area partnership meeting attended by Nelson Peters, Councilman Didier, and many candidates for City Council. The vast majority of those polled were against the project...

My polls were not scientific and I most likely influenced the results due to the way I often posed the questions!

I personally feel that the majority of Fort Wayne residents are against this project. I think this is obvious to anyone except for "blind" supporters of the project.

I feel that today's Zogby poll actually understates the negative opinions of residents about Harrison Square.

The Zogby poll shows that Democrats are more likely to support Harrison Square then Republicans. I certainly believe that to be the case. Democrats are in favor of larger government in many cases.

The Zogby poll shows that Independents are more likely opposed to Harrison Square then Republicans. I believe that as well. I feel that Independents are more in favor of smaller government then today's Republicans.

The Zogby poll shows that young people or more likely to favor Harrison Square then older people. I certainly believe that as well.

In short, the Zogby poll reinforces my own informal polling.

I am glad that the Kelty Campaign is making this a major Campaign issue because this project SHOULD be a major campaign issue in the Republican primary for Mayor. I do not want to hear Mayoral candidates re-iterate their stance on abortion, I want to hear their views on how to improve Fort Wayne.

I think that the Harrison Square Project is a bad idea and will be another "boondoggle" that will waste taxpayer money. I favor Downtown development; however, I do not support pouring public money into Downtown Fort Wayne while at the same time allowing developers to build strip malls all over the edges of Fort Wayne. It does not make good economic sense.



Mike Sylvester

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Have you read the News Sentinel story yet?

Your republican, democrat, independent reasoning makes no sense.

Only republicans were polled!

David Corcoran said...

The good values guy is playing dirty politics, by misleading the city in a poll that not only he helped start, but also he rigged to be in his favor - why else is the poll funding anonymous ?

He's crazy to think this wouldn't be uncovered.

You say you don't want another same old career politician in Ft Wayne ? I think the curtain was just drawn from the wizard guys .....

barranda said...

I think most supporters of Harrison Square fully understand that there is opposition to the project, and a majority opposition to the baseball stadium. However, most of us probably believe at least one of the following:

1. The great majority would rather Harrison Square move forward, if the alternative is nothing. The main argument is whether there is any reasonable alternative. Supporters do not believe there is, and the evidence is the past two decades.

2. A large number of the people that oppose Harrison Square do so, without knowing much, if any, of the details. There are a lot of misconceptions. If those people took the time to understand the project, then opposition would likely fall.

I think that is the one thing that the YLNI poll has in its favor that that other polls do not. Those that took part in the poll did so after receiving information from the panel. And yes, I understand that there was nobody on the panel to give a dissenting opinion. Nevertheless, a poll of informed people is likely 50/50, if not more a majority in favor of the project.

BTW, Mike, the correct usage is "than" not "then". I normally don't correct grammar, but you did it four times. Sorry.

David Corcoran said...

This just keeps getting better and better. Check this out. 2/3 of the population polled was of retirement age.

Age demographic:
18-29 10
30-49 30
50-64 30
65+ 30

barranda said...

b-b-buh-but Dave, Matt says that Zogby polls are the best around, and their methodology has been proven!

Too bad it's not possible to take a poll to determine the percentage of "likely voters" that are not inclined to take polls, for whatever reason.

Indiana Pundit said...

Dave, those numbers reflect the demographic breakdown of registered voters.

Change Fort Wayne said...

All questions I raised when this poll came out.

The question is - how do you get a fair assessment of all sectors of FW?

Also, if this project is about the future, why even ask 50-70 year olds? I realize we have to because their opinion counts as much as anyone else. But the older people are just trying to not rock the boat.

LP Mike Sylvester said...

David Corcoran:

Have you ever worked the polls during an election?

Older people vote and younger people do not vote.

When you poll likely primary voters you are certainly polling an age democraphic that is more heavily weighted towards older voters...

Mike Sylvester

David Corcoran said...

Mike,

Yes I have. Don't tell me this is an accurate reflection of Fort Wayne Matt Kelty. Face it, this was self-serving.

Your median age is 31 here, so maybe the poll should have captured a better audience.

You know there is a term for this in sociology when you poll 60% of Republicans, 60% people over 50 and 60% people on a fixed income. Eventually you realize that you've gained 60% (60-40 + 60-40 + 60-40) support based on the population of people you focused on.

Robert Enders said...

Ask an old person why they bother to vote when they do not expect to be around for much longer. They are concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren. They are arguably more concerned about their grandkids than the grandkids themselves. When most elderly people vote, they vote for what they think is best for the community, and not their own selfish interests. They put a lot of experience into their votes as well. Perhaps it is best that more old people vote than young people.

David Corcoran said...

Robert,

That could be one of the silliest over-generalized statements I've ever heard in my life. Old people vote for exactly the same reasons why you and I vote.

Change Fort Wayne said...

Robert -

Yes, the old people have done such a grand job progressing this city. Our average wage is 80% of the national average. Stay the course Robert, Stay the course.

barranda said...

Yes, Robert, when I listened to the older population complain about Harrison Square at the neigborhood association meeting, they clearly had the younger generation's interest in mind.

Notwithstanding the fact that NONE of them uttered the words "children" or "grandchildren", I'm sure they were worried about them when they voiced their concerns about parking and traffic. For the record, I believe only on opponent mentioned children. Essentially, the Luers teacher said that the kids move away, but they'll come back.

Angry White Boy said...

David,

Kelty did not have anything to do with this poll. One has to wonder about you when you throw baseless remarks on top of accusing him of "rigging" the poll to be in his favor.

That's close to actionable.

You're showing your obvious immaturity.

Anonymous said...

Actuall, Corcoran's statement is actionable. Yesterday he was only saying that "somebody" "probably" rigged the study. Today he is saying Kelty

barranda said...

clearly you've shown actual malice.

Robert Enders said...

Every now and then someone makes the quip that Fort Wayne and the rest of Indiana has a lower per capita income than the national average. But the cost of living is low and the quality of living is high in Fort Wayne. Housing prices are high elsewhere not just due to demand but to burdensome regulations and taxes.

I stand corrected about elderly voters as well. Often they do vote based on their self interests. And many of them are worried about their property taxes going up. Young people tend to rent and are not as worried about property taxes.

Angry White Boy said...

Corky,

You're good at presenting misleading information.

You posted this:
Age demographic:
18-29 10
30-49 30
50-64 30
65+ 30

When in reality, of the 18-29 y/o group only 10 were called and 10 were sampled, that's 100%

Of the 30-49 y/o group 119 were called and 30 were sampled, that's 25%, of the 50-64 again only 25% of 118 that were called were sampled.

Then of course you left out the other age group sampling all together.

As for the median age being 31, you’re wrong on that count too. Fort Wayne Metropolitan Statistical Area stats are as follows:

Median age is 34.3 years


Population Estimates by Age in 2005 Fort Wayne MSA

Preschool (0 to 4) 38,432 6.9%
School Age (5 to 17) 104,002 18.7%
College Age (18 to 24) 46,427 9.9%
Young Adult (25 to 44) 140,624 27.6%
Older Adult (45 to 64) 126,507 24.5%
Older (65 plus) 62,166 12.4%

David Corcoran said...

AWBoy - I will retract on my blaming Kelty for the poll. In fact, no one knows who was behind this poll.

You posted this:
Age demographic:
18-29 10
30-49 30
50-64 30
65+ 30

Came straight from the News Sentinel. Sorry for my misleading information being 3 years off ... of course, I'm not running for public office though ...

David Corcoran said...

BTW, the Ft Wayne Allen County Economic Alliance has the Median age at 33.2 I think we can safely say it is in the early 30s.

Anonymous said...

AWB,
Actionable? Hahahah. Take a look at your OWN blog. Does the headline "Cheater, cheater, cheater" ring any bells?

Sheesh! Some people's short-term memories are worthless!

Anonymous said...

Right on, anonymous 4:21! Of course, his attacking David's maturity is priceless too, considering that same headline.

Frederick said...

Anon,

The Kelty campaign released the Zogby methodology, in it Zogby states,"This is a telephone survey of likely voters in Fort Wayne Indiana conducted by Zogby International. The target sample is 401 interviews with approximately 24 questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample."

The extract below from the Zogby info released indicates that just more than Republicans were polled. Heck they even polled a couple Libertarians.

Party Frequency %
Democrat 60 15
Republican 259 65
Independent/Minor party 80 20
Libertarian 2 1

Frederick said...

The paper said,

"A poll commissioned in January by The Journal Gazette and Indiana’s NewsCenter found about 71 percent of adults questioned didn’t believe a downtown baseball stadium should be built. Many stadium advocates have said the question was misleading because Harrison Square is a mixed-use development, of which the ballpark is only one facet.

[Sam] Talarico said if you believe the validity of the first poll, the Zogby poll shows supporters are making progress.

“The one thing Kelty’s poll shows is opposition has dropped significantly since the newspaper poll was published,” Talarico said."

If I recall, Sam Talarico was complaining like heck about the Journal Gazette and Indiana’s NewsCenter poll when it came out because the majority of people polled were not Fort Wayne residents, yet now he is using the results of that poll and comparing it to the Zogby results from Fort Wayne residents registered and likely to vote in the primary to say support for Harrison Square is growing.

A lawyer's trick, comparing apples and oranges. Sam's assertion is only correct if both samples being compared are 1) qualified identically (Fort Wayne residents registered and likely to vote in the primary) and 2) are a statistically significant sampling.

The numbers are the numbers.