Wednesday, May 02, 2007

A friendly wager

Sam Talarico and I have a friendly wager about the Republican "At-large" primary. Sam's thoughts are below:

Mike, somebody needs to go head to head with you on the predictions. I will bet you lunch on who is closest. This may be the hardest local race in years to predict.

Crawford 20%
Brown 17%
Morris 17%
Mildred 16%
Bender 15%
Gutman 15%

All very good candidates and most would have won the primary in past years.
Sam T.

I have an earlier post about this race. I am going to add percentages for each candidate so that my predictions are in the same format as Sam's

I predict:

Crawford 18%
Mildred 17%
Gutman 17%
Brown 17%
Morris 16%
Bender 15%

So we both predict Crawford will win. Sam thinks Brown and Morris will win and I think Mildred and Gutman will win...

Should be interesting.

The Republicans should be proud that they are able to field six qualified candidates in this race.

Lunch is going to be good, I think Sam will be buying...

What do you think?

Mike Sylvester

20 comments:

Robert Enders said...

I'm going to go on a limb and say that Mildred will come in first and Crawford will come in second. Why? My hunch is that this is an "issues" year. Polls show that more Republicans oppose HS and the smoking ban. Crawford voted for both. Mildred opposed the smoking ban as it stands and proposed a grandfather clause that would allow existing restaurants and bars to maintain a smoking section. He also hedges on HS. If you are against an issue, you will vote for the "hedge" candidate over the "for" candidate everytime. Plus, do you know why some politicians change their stances on issues based on polling data. Because it works!

Anonymous said...

SAM T IS DA MAN!

Anonymous said...

I am going to work on next Tuesday trying to see that Dr. Crawford xcdoes not get past the primary. I have Gutman, Mildred and Morris as Rebublican winners. I will also, along with many others, be asking voters to turn Tim Pape down for his seat in the Democratic primary. If the figures were correct, the overwelming majority not in favor of moving the ballpark downtown should get it done. Our main method on Tuesday will be to get those opposed to the polls. John B. Kalb

jon said...

Ok, here is mine...

Crawford 20%
Mildred 18%
Morris 17%

The rest is not relevant....


BTW... What is the bet? 10% of Sam's annual income for a year?)

Anonymous said...

John, Election day is going to be a sad day for you with that thinking

Anonymous said...

Some people only think - others do! John B. Kalb

Anonymous said...

Some people only think - others do! John B. Kalb

LP Mike Sylvester said...

Jon:

The bet is lunch...

Mike Sylvester

Anonymous said...

Sam,
Want to bet on the Mayor's race? I could use a free lunch.

Anonymous said...

Here is mine:

Crawford 22%
Mildred 20%
Gutman 18%
Morris 15%
Bender 15%
Brown 10%

Jodi Dean

LP Mike Sylvester said...

Jodi:

Why do you think Liz Brown will only get 10% of the vote?

Mike Sylvester

Jeff Pruitt said...

I'll throw my predictions in

Crawford 23%
Mildred 18%
Brown 17%

Anonymous said...

Bender:14%
Brown:18%
Crawford: 22%
Gutman:12%
Mildred:18%
Morris:16%

Anonymous said...

I think that Liz's back-to-back runs, shows her desire just to be a namesake. Her candidacy last fall for FWCS was poor judgment. While we need caring mothers (and fathers) to be in leadership of the inside and outside of the school system. Mrs. Brown's inability to relate to FWCS, via not having a child in a public school or volunteering in the district's 53 buildings, shows her lack of interest, which constrains her true ability to advocate for the parents, students, administration, staff, faculty and students, as well as the general taxpayer. I believe that there should a strong mix of support for both sectors, to make our schools great. Her lack of ability to show both cost her the election! Her desire to 'jump' ship from school board to city election, because she did not receive a position, seems that her only plan is to find a job, rather than effectively review and research the matters of the city and balance that as an advocate for the city. I believe that the majority of the taxpayers will see this as well, as she will yet again fail to be elected.

Jodi

Anonymous said...

Jodi, you are correct, us citizens that send our kids to parochial schools should have no say about the public schools to which we pay our taxes! Unbelievable!

Liz is one of the most tireless volunteers I have ever seen within the parochial school system. She will bring that same level of energy to city council.

Sam T

Anonymous said...

Bender:14%
Brown:14%
Crawford: 20%
Gutman:18%
Mildred:18%
Morris:16%

Anonymous said...

Mike,

I will have to admit, I now feel shaky about my third pick. I think Adam Mildred has closed the best. A couple very nice mailers and some very solid radio spots. No mailers from Morris, and if he is running radio, I have not heard it.

I have a feeling that Mildred is going to surge in to the 3rd spot. However, for purposes of our lunch bet, I will stick with my initial picks.

Sam T.

Anonymous said...

Sam -

For clarification, I do have not problem with parents who have children in parochial schools running for school board. However, when an indivdiual lacks the knowledge of what is happening in the schools, I do take issue. Geoff Paddock, who has NO children, is a great example. Before running for the board, he got involved and volunteered in a couple of the buildings. He toured EVERY school, and met with administrators regulary. Thus, I am not wanting a parent who just is there for the ride, but a parent who will get involved through volunteering, and not just sitting on a board. In my world of nonprofit board days, there is an emphasis on being an ACTIVE member, not just a SITTING member. Big Difference!

Jodi

Anonymous said...

Wed. paper headline

Gutman, Mildred and Morris Fill GOP Ticket

Anonymous said...

Where is this headline?