Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Predictions for 2008

People like to make predictions at the beginning of the year. In the past, people reminded everyone else when they made a correct prediction, yet failed to note when their predictions were wrong. But this is the Internet, so in 366 days we can dig this post out of the archive and see who is right and who is wrong.



So post your predictions. I just have a few rules.


  • Cite the reasons why you believe the predicted event will happen. I don't want to hear about any gut feelings or wishful thinking. Previously, people usually predicted high results for the candidates that they favored.

  • Do not make any predictions regarding future domestic criminal activity or future violence against US nationals abroad. You can however make predictions about potential and ongoing investigations regarding previous illegal activities.

I'll go first. Whoever wins the Iowa caucus will either lose their party's nomination or lose the general election. Since 1972, the year in which Iowa's caucus started to come first, only two non-incumbent candidates won both that state in the primary and the November election. George W. Bush won Iowa in 2000, and so did Carter in 1976. Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton all lost Iowa when they were running for their first terms in the White House.

15 comments:

Craig said...

Ron Paul will still not matter

Kody Tinnel said...

Ron Paul has already mattered and will continue to matter simply based on the media coverage he is finally starting to get and the fact that he is raising and banking more money than several other candidates on both sides.

While he may not get the support in votes, his message is being presented to the American public in a big way and that will certainly continue to get discussions going.

Robert Enders said...

Craig,
Would you care to elaborate why you think that he won't matter? Do you think that he won't matter in the sense that you do not think he will be nominated? Or do you mean that Ron Paul doesn't matter because he is merely one of six billion specks on this pale blue dot among a vast and uncaring universe?

Seriously though, please elaborate on what you mean that he won't matter. Do any of us matter? Do only a handful of the enlightened few matter? If so, please give us a list of those people who do matter. Do we all struggle in vain against a predetermined destiny?

Templeton Peck said...

I'll answer that one. Ron Paul will not matter because not only will he not receive the nomination, but no platform that is unique to Ron Paul will be accepted by any other Republican nominee.

Robert Enders said...

A platform would not be "unique" to Ron Paul if it were accepted by another candidate. Plus, by randomly picking one of 8 candidates and saying that the candidate will lose the nomination, there is a 7 out of 8 chance that you will be right. It is like predicting that the Packers won't win the NFC championship. Odds are, you're probably right.

Andrew Kaduk said...

I think the Face Man was trying to say that Ron Paul shares virtually nothing in common with the other Republican candidates with respect to their platforms.

I agree.

This is why Ron Paul is so appealing to me. He's nothing like the other poofters.

Tim Zank said...

I'll grant ya that Andrew, he (RP) ain't like ANYBODY else.

Templeton Peck said...

Robert

I'm not randomly picking one candidate, I'm picking Ron Paul to lose the nomination. If you think he will win, please pass me what you're smoking.

Ron Paul will not matter because when he drops out of the race it will be as if he never ran. I'm not saying it's right or wrong just that is what will happen. At least that's my prediction. Feel free to disagree.

Jon Olinger said...

"Ron Paul has already mattered and will continue to matter simply based on the media coverage he is finally starting to get and the fact that he is raising and banking more money than several other candidates on both sides."

This is why the Libertarian Party can't win. They think it matters to loose. If Ron Paul doesn't win he doesn't matter. One could argue that Ross Perot mattered because if it were not for him, Clinton would have lost his first term and GHWB would have had eight years. But then that would depend on the definition of “matters” because by his very presence in the election he aided the success of an opponent.

Ron Paul can raise all the money he wants, campaign all he wants but until he wins the nomination he is irrelevant and will only go down in history as an “also ran”. If that matters then so does Ralph Nader, Eric Hass, Benjamin Spock and hundreds of other’s who ran for President and got no votes.

Tim Zank said...

Jon, spot on.

Kody Tinnel said...

I will agree that one's definition of "matters" can change how they view Ron Paul.

In the grand scheme of things he will matter because he is getting out a message that voters might not have thought about before.

While his principles and views may not make it directly into the White House, they will certainly stick around in the minds of many people who are involved in the political process and want to restore this nation to what it was originally meant to be.

Ron Paul supporters are very devoted to their cause and will continue to use every resource possible to continue the "revolution" even if Ron Paul is not elected to the Presidency.

This will matter.

Jon Olinger said...

Revolution? What revolution? A few people on the Fort Wayne bypass waving Ron Paul signs four months before an election is not a Revolution. To have a revolution by definition you must WIN!

I am a member of the Republican Party, but my belief's I find to be libertarian. It would please me to no end to see the libertarian party gain traction; however, they will not because they think the purpose of an election is to "get out a message that voters might not have thought about before". In truth Ron Paul is raising a ton of money.. he will get is message out better than most.. still he will get few votes. The political process is truly a quest for power. A presidential election even more so. This election is about winning. Those who don't won't even have name recall for 95% of the American people in ten years.

Robert Enders said...

"This is why the Libertarian Party can't win. They think it matters to loose."

1. Libertarians have been elected before. We can and do win from time to time.
2. While it is more disirable to win, it is ok to lose as well. The only way to avoid losing is to avoid playing the game.
3. "Lose" is spelled with a single "O". It is ok to misspell words. The only way to avoid misspelling is to avoid writing or typing.

Kody Tinnel said...

Jon,

I believe the Ron Paul "revolution" is just starting up and will continue even after Ron Paul loses. It is about his message.

And you can not argue that the Ron Paul supporters have been doing more and giving more than any of the supporters for other candidates. They have been setting fundraising records and getting a blimp, among other things.

These supporters are not going to just disappear after this election. I think they will be an intersting voting block to try to secure for candidates in the future. While their numbers may still be small, they have the motivation and moeny to help out a candidate greatly if the message is right.

ScLoHo (Scott Howard) said...

After watching the debate on ABC Saturday night and catching the talking heads off and on Sunday on the Boob Tube, I found it interesting to see all the reactions. This will be a fun election and quite frankly I'm disappointed that we will not have a president that will get the government out of our lives and allow free markets to exist.

There are lessons to be learned if we really want change. Don't stop once the election is over, planning should be going on now for the local elections in 2011. You have 2 or 3 years to build a third party that can challenge and WIN. Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, and others had limited support but the momentum stalled.

Finally, I heard a commentary from Ben Stein today talking about how many of the changes Americans want are changes they, and only they can make themselves, the President can't help you loose weight, make more money, or much anything else. Hopefully a video or transcript will show up on the www soon.