So post your predictions. I just have a few rules.
- Cite the reasons why you believe the predicted event will happen. I don't want to hear about any gut feelings or wishful thinking. Previously, people usually predicted high results for the candidates that they favored.
- Do not make any predictions regarding future domestic criminal activity or future violence against US nationals abroad. You can however make predictions about potential and ongoing investigations regarding previous illegal activities.
I'll go first. Whoever wins the Iowa caucus will either lose their party's nomination or lose the general election. Since 1972, the year in which Iowa's caucus started to come first, only two non-incumbent candidates won both that state in the primary and the November election. George W. Bush won Iowa in 2000, and so did Carter in 1976. Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton all lost Iowa when they were running for their first terms in the White House.