It's been a week, so you all should be over your hangovers by now. It New Year and New Decade prediction time. Feel free to post your prediction for this year or the next ten years. I only ask that you post your basis for your prediction.
My prediction for the year: Obama's approval ratings will play a role in the midterm elections. If his approval ratings are above %50, the Democrats will gain seats in the House. If his approval ratings are below %50, his party will lose seats. Conventional wisdom holds that the party that controls the White House loses seats during the the midterms. That was not the case in 1998 and 2002, when Clinton and Bush's higher approval ratings seemed to give their respective parties a boost.
My prediction for the decade: Unemployment will stay above %5 until US forces are withdrawn from Iraq. It is a common fallacy that war is good for the economy. In fact, whether a war is justified or not, it still constitutes a heavy expenditure of resources, time, effort, and human lives. There are a lot of talented people serving overseas right now. They could be here figuring out the best way to develop American industry.