Thursday, January 07, 2010

Predictions for the new year and new decade

It's been a week, so you all should be over your hangovers by now. It New Year and New Decade prediction time. Feel free to post your prediction for this year or the next ten years. I only ask that you post your basis for your prediction.

My prediction for the year: Obama's approval ratings will play a role in the midterm elections. If his approval ratings are above %50, the Democrats will gain seats in the House. If his approval ratings are below %50, his party will lose seats. Conventional wisdom holds that the party that controls the White House loses seats during the the midterms. That was not the case in 1998 and 2002, when Clinton and Bush's higher approval ratings seemed to give their respective parties a boost.

My prediction for the decade: Unemployment will stay above %5 until US forces are withdrawn from Iraq. It is a common fallacy that war is good for the economy. In fact, whether a war is justified or not, it still constitutes a heavy expenditure of resources, time, effort, and human lives. There are a lot of talented people serving overseas right now. They could be here figuring out the best way to develop American industry.

1 comment:

Daddy said...

For the year: unemployment and foreclosures increase, real estate market collapse. Emergence of the tea party, gradual desapeance of republican voters similarly to what happened in Canada. Emergence of new populist leaders.

Decade: Financial collapse of dollar. Two digit inflation. Unemployment above 25%. Looting, armed riots, flee of capital and businesses to safer lands. Increase in organized crime and police corruption. Election of another populist president with deep voice and persuasive style but no substance. Further erosion of constitutional rights, amid decline in the standard of living. Consequent flee of businesses and intellectuals to safer lands with better pay. Dramatic increase in Chinese immigration. Mandarin as an official language in municipalities and states with Chinese majority as well as in Canada.